Photonics is evolving, not just as a technology, but as a strategic capability shaped by broader global forces.
During a recent panel at SPIE Photonics West, I joined several industry leaders to explore the future of photonics in a time marked by geopolitical complexity, supply chain disruptions, trade restrictions and the advance of enabling technologies such as AI in the workplace and a future that includes practical applications of Quantum Computing.
Here are some reflections from that conversation on where we’re headed and what will define leadership, innovation, and resilience in the years to come.
Strategy in a Time of Geopolitical Shifts
The conversation around innovation often begins with technology, but increasingly, it is shaped by geopolitical reality.
As a member of the Foreign Policy Leadership Council at The Brookings Institution, I have developed a deep appreciation of the value of their independent policy research and its potential benefits to economic statecraft planners in government and to businesses that are redefining what “strategic” means.
Organizations are rebalancing where they manufacture, rethinking where they invest, and accelerating the way innovation and AI are on a path to becoming inseparable.
From a foreign policy lens, we’re moving from a world where efficiency was the dominant objective to one where security and sovereignty carry more weight. This is especially true for photonics because our industry underpins many dual-use applications.
In this environment, I believe the winners will be the ones who are building optionality and resiliency into their dual-use supply chains and who can innovate and adapt manufacturing scale quickly.
To navigate this kind of complexity, experts inform us to rely on a few key planning tools:
- Scenario planning: explore multiple futures to prepare your organization for different geopolitical, economic, or technological outcomes.
- Segmenting critical paths: break down key processes to identify where risks are concentrated and which steps are most vulnerable to disruption.
- Creating options: design flexible alternatives in advance so you can quickly pivot when conditions change.
Increasingly, incumbents and emerging companies alike are aligning investment with regional strengths. The trick — and the opportunity — will be integrating into an increasingly decoupled world.
Photonics as a System-Level Enabler
This geopolitical and economic realignment is also transforming how we build systems.
Historically, the role of photonics was to help communication and computing systems go faster and further, with less signal loss. It was essential, but it often played a supporting role at the edges of the network.
That is changing. Photonics is clearly moving towards a central, integrated technology — essential for building low-latency, energy-efficient systems as electronics hit their physical limits, especially in high-performance applications like AI.
This shift is also prompting a broader redesign of systems architecture. Based on decades of basic research and recent trends of market leaders available in the public domain, it is clear to see that instead of building electronics and photonics separately, the next generation of systems will be co-designed‚ where hardware, software, and photonics are developed together — especially important in AI infrastructure, where the need for speed, power efficiency, and real-time processing is the game.
Investing in the Future
It’s clear that major innovations and disruptions are accelerating. This shift is fueling growing interest in:
- Next-generation technologies
- New materials
- The deployment of AI agents and digital twins in scientific and manufacturing workflows
At Avalanche Thinking, we’ve invested in HyperSpectral to help realize the value of the insight AI and machine learning can bring to the physical world — especially where datasets are sparse, noisy, and expensive to acquire. In areas like manufacturing, defense, and energy efficiency, the ability to “see the unseen” will be transformative.
I believe that the connection between AI and manufacturing is straightforward: when technology, manufacturability, and real-world needs converge — and that when digital tools unlock new physical insights — transformation happens.
In short, it is so exciting to see the 4th Industrial Revolution now in full bloom.
Rewiring the Photonics Value Chain
To accelerate global growth and relevance in photonics, important changes will come from where and how the value chain is restructured.
Where will this restructuring begin? I believe it will start at the base of the value chain, where leverage is highest:
- Materials and critical processes, which create downstream leverage
- Advanced packaging, where performance bottlenecks are most acute
- Eventually, system-level integration, the ultimate convergence points where everything comes together.
We’re already seeing some signs of this evolution. A real-world signal of value chain shift is how some hyperscalers are adopting hollow-core fiber transmission. Despite current manufacturing limits, the performance gains — lower latency and longer spans — are evidently worth the friction.
It’s a clear example of how value chains begin to move when system-level demands outpace legacy platforms.
Leadership in a Time of Complexity
We often talk about innovation as a technology challenge, but just as often, it is a leadership challenge.
In today’s world, leadership requires more than vision. It demands judgment and humility. A few principles I return to:
- Create clarity — even when certainty isn’t possible
- Lead with vulnerability, anchored by accountability
- Know when sooner is better than perfect
- When moving, move at the speed of light
- Expand pathways for women into senior leadership
- Explain how decisions will be made, even when the path forward isn’t fully known
- Deliver outsized returns
- Never lose sight of people — families, workers, communities, and nations that innovation should serve
Good leadership doesn’t wait for things to settle. It moves with purpose — and adapts with discipline.
Looking Ahead
Photonics is on the cusp of something bigger. In the next 10 years, photonics will be more integrated, scalable, and far more central to global systems, serving as a bridge between digital intelligence and the physical world.
Photonics will grow in impact, strengthen in execution, and step more confidently into its role.
And I wouldn’t be surprised if someday soon, in homes and boardrooms alike, we’ll be saying: “Photons Rule.”
Thank you to SPIE, the international society for optics and photonics for having me, and to my fellow panelists Jennifer Cable , John T.C. Lee, Omkaram Nalamasu and Anupama Suryanarayanan and Samuel Sadoulet for moderating.
